Early Thoughts on Gvote2024
Setting Realistic Goals for the Opposition
As we approach the Gvote2024 elections, it is essential for the opposition to set clear and achievable objectives while openly discussing potential scenarios. One plausible scenario involves the ruling party, Georgian Dream (GD), comfortably winning the majority, while several other parties narrowly missing the threshold to enter parliament. But let's assume that 4-5 parties manage to secure parliamentary seats and collectively have more seats than GD.
Today, it is difficult to envision GD performing so badly, that it doesn't win the right to form the government first, hence its crucial for opposition parties and voters to understand what happens next. In such a scenario, parties will face a critical choice - whether to form a coalition with GD or wait for the next in line, likely United National Movement (UNM), to invite them in. Undoubtedly, there will be pressures from the State Security Service and financial incentives involved. Nevertheless, the ultimate decision will rest with the maturity of political leaders, who must be ready for this possibility. The presence of a satellite or like-minded party in parliament could also influence GD's options, making their task easier.
Realistically, the opposition's primary goal should be to ensure that GD's majority in the parliament, if achieved, is as fragile as possible. As seen in the 2020 and 2016 parliaments, GD's hold on power was tenuous. Over time, it has become increasingly challenging for them to find loyalists even within their own ranks, at least to back the most controversial topics. While this may pose some challenges, it serves as a safeguard against the passing of damaging or repressive legislation without scrutiny.
For those running for elections, it is crucial to abandon any notions of boycotts and commit wholeheartedly to their mandate from day one. Engaging in the democratic process and actively working within the system is the most effective way to bring about meaningful change.
In conclusion, as the Gvote2024 approaches, the opposition must set realistic and achievable goals while openly discussing potential scenarios. Their primary objective should be to weaken GD's majority in parliament, ensuring that it remains susceptible to internal divisions. By committing to their mandates and actively participating in the political process, opposition parties can work towards a stronger and more vibrant democracy in Georgia.
And as always, the traditional disclaimer applies. Georgian politics have proven to be remarkably unpredictable, with twists and turns that often catch both pundits and citizens by surprise. Much can change in the political landscape. Shifts in public opinion, unforeseen events, scandals, and alliances can all reshape the electoral dynamics.
P.S. This post takes inspiration from the tweet and subsequent discussion to Lasha Markozashvili’s tweet, who is a member of the For Georgia party, which can be found at the following link:
https://twitter.com/LashaMarkozash1/status/1682396914099036160
While one may debate the likelihood of For Georgia achieving their goals independently, not many parties in Georgia have this candid approach of openly discussing realistic objectives while also acknowledging the presence of influential political players (as opposed to prematurely claiming an improbable victory). Perhaps its the result of having the vision of both worlds - being part of GD led majority and now an opposition.